Housing Market

The Great Wealth Transfer: Unlocking New Opportunities

In recent years, a dramatic shift in the way wealth is transferred between generations has taken place, commonly referred to as the Great Wealth Transfer. This phenomenon is set to reshape financial landscapes, especially here in San Diego, where many Baby Boomers are preparing to retire, sell their businesses, or downsize their homes. Unlike the gradual inheritance processes of the past, this transfer is occurring on an unprecedented scale.

Historically, wealth passed down through families tended to be smaller, often consisting of modest inheritances or savings. However, the current trend is far more significant.
According to a recent Bankrate article:

“The biggest wave of wealth in history is about to pass from Baby Boomers over the next 20 years, and it’s going to have major impacts on many facets of life. Called The Great Wealth Transfer, $84 trillion is poised to move from older Americans to Gen X and millennials. If it’s managed smartly, Americans will be able to grow their wealth and ensure their financial security.”

As these assets change hands, the younger generations have the opportunity to build and grow their wealth. In San Diego, a city known for its vibrant housing market and booming economy, this wealth transfer is likely to fuel new opportunities for both buyers and sellers. The ripple effects of this transition will be felt across the community, shaping the financial future for decades to come. The graph below, based on data from Merrill and Cerulli Associates, illustrates just how much wealth is set to be inherited by 2045.

The Great Wealth Transfer Bar Graph by Merill and Ceruli Associates

Understanding and preparing for this significant financial shift is crucial, especially in a competitive market like San Diego’s.

Impact on San Diego’s Housing Market

The wealth transfer is poised to significantly impact the San Diego housing market. Home affordability has long been a challenge for many potential buyers, particularly in San Diego’s most sought-after neighborhoods. With the upcoming increase in generational wealth, we could see these barriers begin to lessen. This transfer of assets from older generations to younger ones is expected to provide future homeowners with greater financial resources, making it easier to purchase a home in San Diego’s competitive market.

As these assets are passed down, many buyers may find themselves better equipped to afford homes, potentially leading to a surge in homeownership or even opportunities to upgrade or invest in additional properties.

According to a recent article by Merrill:

“While millennials face steep barriers . . . to buying a first home in many markets, ‘that’s a for-now story, not a forever story’ . . . The Great Wealth Transfer should enable more of them to become homeowners — or trade up or add a second home — either through inherited property or the funds for a down payment.”

San Diego, with its desirable location and strong demand, is likely to be at the forefront of this shift, making it an exciting time for both buyers and the real estate market as a whole.

Impact on San Diego’s Economy

The Great Wealth Transfer doesn’t just affect the housing market; it has a far-reaching impact on San Diego’s local economy as well. As significant amounts of wealth shift between generations, this influx of capital opens up new opportunities for aspiring entrepreneurs in the city. For those looking to start a business, these inherited funds can serve as the vital capital needed to launch their ventures. This, in turn, fuels economic growth by allowing the next generation of San Diego innovators and business owners to bring their ideas to life and contribute to the city’s vibrant business landscape. With San Diego’s entrepreneurial spirit already thriving, the wealth transfer could further accelerate the pace of innovation and create a more dynamic local economy.

The Bottom Line on The Great Wealth Transfer

In today’s housing market, affordability continues to be a hurdle for many, especially in vibrant cities like San Diego. However, the ongoing Great Wealth Transfer is expected to open doors to new possibilities. As this wealth gets passed down and invested, it could help break down some of the barriers to homeownership that have held people back. In San Diego, where the real estate market is both competitive and desirable, this shift could lead to more opportunities for first-time buyers and fuel growth in various entrepreneurial ventures across the city.

Top Seller Mistakes in San Diego Real Estate

Foreclosures Ahead for San Diego Housing Market?

Despite data showing inflation is cooling, many people are still feeling the pinch in their wallets. These high costs on everything from gas to groceries are fueling unnecessary concerns about more people struggling to make their mortgage payments. However, does that mean a big wave of foreclosures is coming?

The Stability of San Diego Homeowners

In San Diego, there aren’t many homeowners seriously behind on their mortgages. This stability contrasts sharply with the last housing crash when relaxed lending standards allowed many to secure mortgages they couldn’t afford. Back then, lenders were less strict about credit scores, income levels, employment status, and debt-to-income ratios.

However, the scenario has changed dramatically. Today, lending standards are much tighter. Lenders now conduct thorough assessments of applicants, ensuring that only well-qualified buyers receive home loans. This shift means there are fewer risks of defaults.

As a result, data from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae indicates a steady decline in the number of homeowners who are seriously behind on their mortgage payments, commonly referred to as delinquencies. This trend is evident in the accompanying graph.

Serious Delinquencies on a Decline, Percentage of Mortgage Loans in the Process of Foreclosure Graph by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

For San Diego homeowners, this means that not only are borrowers more qualified, but they are also effectively navigating financial challenges. Many are exploring repayment options or leveraging their substantial equity to sell their home and avoid foreclosures. This proactive approach contributes to the overall health and stability of the San Diego housing market.

The Truth About Foreclosures: No Wave on the Horizon for San Diego

There is no indication that a wave of foreclosures is approaching. For a significant rise in foreclosures to occur, a large number of homeowners would need to default on their mortgage payments. However, this scenario is unlikely because the majority of homeowners are successfully making their payments, and many have accumulated substantial equity in their properties.

In the context of San Diego, where the housing market remains robust, the risk of a foreclosure wave is even lower. The city’s strong economy and high demand for housing contribute to the stability of homeownership. Buyers in San Diego are generally well-qualified, and the lending practices have been stringent, ensuring that mortgages are manageable for most homeowners.

Housing market expert Bill McBride of Calculated Risk, who accurately predicted the foreclosure crisis of 2008, assures us that we will not see a surge in foreclosures that could significantly impact house prices. According to McBride:

“We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.”

Thanks to solid mortgage lending practices and significant homeowner equity, a foreclosure wave is not on the horizon for San Diego or the broader housing market.

Bottom Line

If you’re concerned about a potential foreclosure crisis, rest assured that current data does not support this fear. In San Diego, the housing market is showing strong signs of stability. Buyers today are more qualified than ever before, which significantly reduces the risk of them falling behind on mortgage payments. This is a positive indicator of the overall health of our local real estate market. So, if you’re thinking about buying or selling in San Diego, the outlook remains promising and secure.

For any real estate needs or inquiries, don’t hesitate to reach out to the McT Real Estate Group. We’re here to provide expert guidance and help you navigate the San Diego housing market with confidence. Contact us today!

Housing Inventory 2024 vs. 2008: San Diego Housing Market

Foreclosure Rates in San Diego: 2024 Insights vs. 2008 Crisis

If you’ve been staying updated on current events, you’ve likely stumbled upon reports discussing the rising trend of foreclosure rates in today’s housing market. This might stir up memories of the housing crash in 2008, possibly leaving you feeling concerned about what lies ahead, particularly if you experienced homeownership during that tumultuous time.

However, it’s essential to understand that despite the uptick, we’re not heading towards another foreclosure crisis. Let’s delve into the latest statistics and compare them with historical data to provide a clearer picture of the situation, especially in San Diego.

Unveiling the Truth: Putting the Current Foreclosure Rates into Perspective

Despite alarming headlines, the recent rise in foreclosures in San Diego doesn’t herald a crisis akin to 2008. Understanding the situation requires a closer look beyond sensationalism.

Firstly, let’s address the context. San Diego’s current foreclosure surge contrasts sharply with historically low rates. Just a few years ago, initiatives like moratoriums and forbearance programs shielded countless homeowners, keeping foreclosure rates unusually low. With these protections now expired, it’s natural to see an increase in foreclosures. However, this uptick is expected and not cause for alarm. A rise in filings doesn’t spell doom for the housing market.

To put things in perspective, let’s compare to the aftermath of the 2008 crash, still fresh in many minds. Data from leading property data provider ATTOM shows a consistent decline in foreclosures since then. This broader view highlights the market’s resilience and dispels fears of a repeat crisis.

Foreclosure Activity Increases But Still Below Pre-Pandemic Levels Graph

San Diego’s Foreclosure Landscape: A Tale of Resilience and Recovery

The current data starkly contrasts with the conditions during the housing crash era. Unlike the alarming spikes in foreclosure filings, notably exceeding 1 million annually, San Diego’s foreclosure landscape in 2023 reveals a considerably lower figure of approximately 357,000 filings. This significant disparity underscores a positive shift in the market dynamics.

Transitioning from the red bars symbolizing the distressing foreclosure peaks of the past to the present scenario unveils a notable improvement in San Diego’s real estate climate. In contrast to the tumultuous events of the housing crisis, characterized by widespread economic turmoil, the current situation reflects a more stable and resilient market.

A recent article from Bankrate delves into one of the key factors contributing to this stark contrast. By analyzing trends and data specific to San Diego, the article sheds light on the region’s robust recovery and the mitigating factors that have steered it away from the tumultuous conditions of the past.

“In the years after the housing crash, millions of foreclosures flooded the housing market, depressing prices. That’s not the case now. Most homeowners have a comfortable equity cushion in their homes.”

In essence, the data not only illustrates the stark differences between past and present but also underscores San Diego’s real estate market’s resilience and adaptability. Understanding these nuances is crucial for effectively navigating today’s real estate landscape. Below is a chart illustrating the number of distressed properties in San Diego. You can see there are not many.

Wrapping it All Up

Foreclosure activity in San Diego today contrasts starkly with the turmoil of the 2008 housing crash. Unlike the past, many homeowners in our region now hold substantial equity in their properties, acting as a sturdy defense against foreclosure risks. This positive development not only benefits homeowners but also enhances stability within the local real estate market.

Upon closer examination of the data, it becomes clear that San Diego’s current housing scene differs greatly from the foreclosure crises of the past. Instead, it portrays resilience and vigor, signaling a path diverging significantly from the challenges endured during previous economic downturns. While there is a noticeable increase in foreclosures, it’s important to emphasize that this surge doesn’t reach the crisis levels witnessed during the housing bubble burst. This rise in foreclosures does not forebode an imminent crash in home prices in San Diego or elsewhere.

Fed Tax Return for Home Buying in San Diego

San Diego Real Estate: Why We’re Not Facing a Housing Crash

If you’re eagerly awaiting a housing market crash to bring San Diego’s home prices back down, it’s time to reassess and look at some data. The current data that we have paints a clear picture: a downturn isn’t on the horizon anytime soon. In fact, real estate experts predict that home prices will continue their upward trajectory through the coming months and years. Comparing today’s market to the pre-2008 housing crash reveals stark differences. This distinction is crucial in understanding why a repeat scenario is unlikely.

San Diego’s Evolving Mortgage Landscape: Navigating Stricter Standards for Homebuyers

Securing a home loan has become a more rigorous process in today’s real estate landscape, and surprisingly, this shift towards stricter lending criteria is a positive development. This is unlike the prelude to the 2008 housing crisis, where obtaining a mortgage was relatively effortless due to lenient standards set by banks. Banks have tightened their lending standards considerably, presenting a more selective environment for potential homebuyers. Unlike the past era, where almost anyone could qualify for a mortgage, today’s borrowers encounter heightened requirements from mortgage companies.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) data clearly shows this evolution in lending practices. A glance at the graph reveals a significant contrast in lending standards between then and now. The peak in the graph reflects a time when obtaining a mortgage was far less arduous, indicating lower barriers to entry into the housing market. However, the lax lending standards of the past era came with severe consequences. The surge in mortgage approvals without thorough vetting exposed borrowers and lending institutions to substantial risks. As a result, the market witnessed a wave of defaults and foreclosures, contributing to the infamous housing crash of 2008.

Today, San Diego’s real estate landscape is characterized by a more cautious approach, with lending institutions prioritizing responsible lending practices. This shift not only protects borrowers from entering unsustainable financial commitments but also safeguards the stability of the housing market. By imposing stricter standards, lenders mitigate the likelihood of another housing crisis, ensuring a more sustainable and resilient real estate environment for all stakeholders involved.

San Diego’s Housing Market Stability: A Closer Look at Inventory Trends

In today’s San Diego real estate market, we’re witnessing a significant shift from the conditions that led to the housing crash of the past. Back then, the market was flooded with an excess of available homes, many of which were distressed properties like short sales and foreclosures. This surplus in inventory drove home prices to plummet dramatically, causing widespread economic turmoil.

However, the landscape looks much different now. There’s a noticeable shortage of available homes for sale, creating a vastly different scenario from the conditions that precipitated the housing crisis. According to data sourced from reputable organizations such as the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the Federal Reserve, the current inventory levels are strikingly low compared to the peak of the crisis.

For instance, the graph below illustrates the contrast between the months’ supply of homes available now (depicted in blue) versus during the housing crash (highlighted in red). Today, the unsold inventory hovers at a mere 3.0-months’ supply, a stark comparison to the peak of 10.4 months’ supply witnessed in 2008. This significant disparity indicates that there’s currently insufficient inventory on the market to precipitate a collapse in home prices akin to the events of the past.

Housing Supply is Lower Than Before Graph

In essence, the limited supply of homes for sale throughout the country safeguards against the risk of a housing crash, offering stability and confidence to buyers and sellers. As we navigate these evolving real estate dynamics, it’s evident that San Diego’s housing market is resilient and poised for continued growth and prosperity.

Fortifying Financial Resilience in Today’s Market

In the era leading up to the housing crash of the early 2000s, many homeowners utilized their homes as financial reservoirs, tapping into equity to fund various expenditures like new cars, boats, and extravagant vacations. Consequently, when property values plummeted, and housing inventory surged, numerous homeowners found themselves submerged in mortgages exceeding the value of their homes.

Fast forward to today’s real estate landscape in sunny San Diego, and a marked shift in homeowner behavior is evident. Despite the meteoric rise in property prices over recent years, homeowners exhibit a newfound prudence, refraining from extensive equity extraction akin to the pre-crash era.

According to data from Black Knight, tappable equity—representing the amount of equity accessible to homeowners before reaching an 80% loan-to-value ratio—has presently reached unprecedented levels. This surge in equity signifies that homeowners collectively possess more financial leverage than ever before, bolstering their financial resilience in the face of market fluctuations.

Tappable Equity at an All-Time High Graph

Moreover, Black Knight’s findings underscore this positive trend, revealing a significant decline in underwater mortgages.

“Only 1.1% of mortgage holders (582K) ended the year underwater, down from 1.5% (807K) at this time last year.”

With homeowners on firmer financial ground, the prospect of foreclosure diminishes, thereby curbing the influx of distressed properties into the market. Consequently, the absence of a deluge of inventory serves as a buffer against precipitous price declines, safeguarding the stability of San Diego’s real estate market.

Wrapping All Things Up

In summary, it’s normal to expect housing prices to drop, particularly in a lively city like San Diego. However, recent data shows otherwise. Unlike past downturns, San Diego’s real estate market is strong today. The newest studies clearly show that we’re not about to experience a housing crash like before. So, while people still want cheaper housing, the proof indicates that a crash isn’t coming soon.

San Diego 2024 Home Price Forecast: Expert Revision

San Diego’s Housing Market: The Perfect Seller’s Window

Are you still thinking about whether or not to put your home on the market for sale in San Diego? With what’s going on in the current real estate landscape, it presents a few compelling reasons to make a move. Let’s delve into the numbers, shall we? Recent data from an article by Calculated Risk reveals a notable 15.6% uptick in available homes compared to last year, signaling a growing inventory and more listings gradually coming into the market. However, compared to 2019, a year deemed more typical for the market, there’s still a 40% decline in the available housing stock for buyers to choose from. This shift creates a golden opportunity for sellers and even those on the purchasing side. Let’s explore how this advantageous scenario works to your benefit.

Inventory is Rising, But It's Still Low Graph — Inventory is Rising, But It’s Still Low Graph

Expanding Opportunities: Navigating San Diego’s Growing Housing Market

Are you considering selling your home due to space constraints or shifting preferences? Well, here’s the exciting news and catch: With the continuous growth in the housing market, your options are slowly expanding! Whether you’re in dire need of a larger house, maybe contemplating downsizing, or simply just craving a change, the increasing inventory means you’re more or less likely to find your ideal home that fits your preferences.

If concerns about finding the right property were holding you back before, fret not. This surge in options eliminates those worries and opens up many possibilities and new listings. Partnering with a local real estate expert in your area also ensures you’re kept abreast of the latest listings in San Diego when or before they even hit the market. Seize the opportunity presented by today’s thriving market and embark on your home-selling journey with confidence!

San Diego’s Housing Market: Low Competition, High Potential

Furthermore, even with the uptick in available homes for sale, competition continues to remain notably subdued, particularly when contrasted with usual market dynamics. Remember the data from the Calculated Risk we mentioned before: San Diego’s housing inventory presently stands at approximately 40% below its 2019 levels. This substantial shortfall isn’t expected to be rectified swiftly. A recent article from Realtor.com underscored this ongoing trend, emphasizing the enduring impact on the local housing landscape.

“. . . the number of homes for sale and new listing activity continues to improve compared to last year. However the inventory of homes for sale still has a long journey back to pre-pandemic levels.”

This translates to an advantageous situation for people on the seller’s side. By collaborating with an agent to accurately price your property to sell, you can attract considerable interest from eager buyers, potentially leading to a swift sale. In essence, finding the optimal listing price, in conjunction with effective marketing strategies, can significantly increase the visibility of your home and expedite the selling process.

Wrapping it all Up

To sum all things up, for homeowners still contemplating putting their property on the market, San Diego’s current real estate landscape offers an exceptional chance for this exciting opportunity. The market is ripe with various options for your next dream home, and competition from other sellers remains relatively subdued. Seizing this advantageous moment could be the key to maximizing your selling potential. So if you are ready and well-prepared to embark on this exciting journey, please don’t hesitate to get in touch with a trusted local realtor in your area like the McT Real Estate Group here in San Diego, and let’s kickstart this endeavor together.

San Diego’s Market Trends: Home Price Headlines

San Diego Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates to Dip Below 6% Soon

In the ever-evolving landscape of San Diego mortgage rates, clarity amidst the confusion is crucial, especially for those eyeing the real estate market. Amidst the fluctuations, one trend stands out: a downward trajectory in mortgage rates compared to the near 8% peak experienced last fall. This trend bears significance for both prospective buyers and sellers alike, signaling a favorable environment.

While short-term volatility may sway rates based on economic indicators like inflation and reactions to the consumer price index (CPI), it’s essential not to lose sight of the bigger picture. Experts concur that the overarching trend points downwards, a reassuring sign for those navigating the housing market.

Looking ahead, projections hint at a potential milestone: mortgage rates dipping below the 6% mark later this year. Senior Economist Dean Baker of the Center for Economic Research lends credence to this outlook, suggesting a notable decrease from pre-Great Recession standards. Moreover, Fannie Mae’s latest projections align with this sentiment, offering optimism for prospective homebuyers (as illustrated in the chart below, highlighting projections in the green box).

“They will almost certainly not fall to pandemic lows, although we may soon see rates under 6.0 percent, which would be low by pre-Great Recession standards.”

Take a glance at the latest mortgage rate predictions for 2024, straight from Fannie Mae. This chart compares their December projection with the updated forecast just a month later. What catches the eye? A clear downward trend in the projections.

It’s standard practice for experts to revise their forecasts as they closely monitor market dynamics and broader economic indicators. What’s evident here is a growing confidence among experts that mortgage rates will keep sliding, particularly if inflation eases.

In San Diego, where real estate trends often mirror national patterns, this shift could have significant implications for homebuyers and sellers alike. Lower mortgage rates typically mean increased affordability and heightened market activity, potentially sparking a surge in housing demand across the region.

What Does This Mean for You?

Remember that predicting the future of mortgage rates is not an exact science. Short-term fluctuations are normal, so it’s essential not to let minor changes unsettle you. Instead, maintain focus on the broader perspective. In today’s competitive San Diego market, finding a home that fits both your budget and your preferences can be challenging. If you’ve discovered a property you adore, waiting for rates to dip below 6% might not be the best strategy.

Considering current rates are already lower than last fall, you’re presented with a prime opportunity. Even a modest quarter-point decrease in rates can significantly enhance your purchasing power. So, seize the moment and make informed decisions based on market conditions.

To Wrap Things Up on the San Diego Mortgage Rate Forecast

In conclusion, if you’ve been delaying your move, anticipating a drop in mortgage rates, the current scenario suggests that the wait might be over. With rates potentially dipping below 6%, seizing the opportunity now could be the smart move. Ready to take the next step? Connecting with a trusted local real estate team like the McT Real Estate Group in San Diego can help you kickstart the process. And hey, if you’re considering a move in the vibrant San Diego area, there’s no better time to explore your options!

San Diego Foreclosure Rates Remain Below Average

San Diego Mortgage Rates Update: What You Need to Know

Decoding the Mortgage Rollercoaster: Navigating Rates in San Diego’s Vibrant Market

San Diego’s real estate scene is as colorful and dynamic as a sunset over the Pacific, and mortgage rates can seem to mirror that very same energy. One minute you hear whispers of them dropping, the next they’re supposedly skyrocketing out of nowhere – enough to leave even the most seasoned homeowner with a dizzy head with all these ups and downs. But fear not, fellow San Diegans! We’re here to clear the confusion and help you navigate this ever-shifting landscape.

The truth is, that the mixed messages often stem from the specific timeframe being analyzed. What appears like a dramatic upswing over a week might be a gentle decline compared to last year’s peak. That’s why, instead of getting lost in the day-to-day fluctuations, we need to take a step back and zoom out. Let’s delve into the unique dynamics of San Diego’s mortgage market and shed some light on the bigger picture. Shall we?

Mortgage Rates: A Journey Through Peaks and Valleys

Think of mortgage rates as a San Diego roller coaster – exciting, unpredictable, and influenced by a whirlwind of factors. From the Federal Reserve’s decisions to global economic shifts, these rates are in constant motion. What goes up today might come down tomorrow, making any short-term analysis a bit of a guessing game.

To illustrate this point, let’s peer into a graph charting the 30-year fixed rate since last October. It’s a wild ride, mirroring the ups and downs of our beloved city’s economy. But don’t get discouraged by the dips! Zooming out, we see that compared to October’s peak, rates have actually been on a gradual decline. Now, the question becomes: how do we interpret these fluctuations in the context of San Diego’s vibrant real estate scene?

Focusing solely on the past week might make it seem like rates are inching upward. However, when we compare them to the October high, the overall trend reveals a welcome decrease. This perspective shift is crucial, especially in a dynamic market like San Diego. Whether you’re a seasoned homeowner or a first-time home buyer, understanding these trends empowers you to make informed decisions.

The Good News: A Glimpse into the Future

Stepping away from the daily rollercoaster, we see a more promising picture. Industry experts project this downward trend to continue throughout the year, offering a beacon of hope for prospective San Diego buyers. While temporary fluctuations are inevitable, focusing on the bigger picture ensures you’re not swayed by momentary blips.

Ready to Navigate the Ride? We’re Here to Help!

The world of mortgage rates can be a wild ride, but you don’t have to go it alone. Whether you have questions about the latest San Diego homes or just want to clarify the mortgage jargon, a seasoned local real estate team like the McT Real Estate Group is here to be your expert guide. So, buckle up, San Diego – let’s navigate this exciting market together!

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San Diego’s Market Trends: Home Price Headlines

Are you feeling anxious about the current buzz surrounding San Diego’s Market Trends on Home Prices? It’s crucial to remember that these headlines only provide a glimpse of the overall narrative.

Contrary to what you might have heard, the national data paints a different picture. In fact, home prices exhibited positive growth throughout the year. While there were minor fluctuations in certain markets and occasional dips in some months on a national scale, these instances were more of an anomaly than a trend.

The bottom line? Last year saw an upward trajectory in home prices, not a decline. It’s time to delve deeper into the data to gain a clearer understanding of the situation in San Diego and beyond. Let’s separate fact from fiction and explore the real story behind the numbers.

Understanding 2024 Return to Normal Home Prices

In 2023, we witnessed a return to more typical home price growth, marking a step toward normalization in the housing market. Understanding this trend requires delving into the predictable ebbs and flows inherent in residential real estate, a phenomenon known as seasonality.

Traditionally, spring emerges as the peak homebuying season, characterized by heightened market activity. Summer maintains this momentum before a gradual decline sets in towards the year’s end. Correspondingly, home prices tend to surge during periods of high demand, aligning with the ebbs and flows of the market.

49-Year Average Monthly Price Improvement Graph

Analyzing data from Case-Shiller spanning nearly five decades unveils a consistent pattern of home price fluctuations mirroring market seasonality. At the onset of each year, prices exhibit moderate growth, reflecting decreased market activity during the winter months. As spring ushers in the peak homebuying season, both market activity and home prices escalate. Conversely, as autumn approaches, market activity recedes, resulting in slower price growth.

49 Year Average vs 2023 Price Movement Graph — 49-Year Average vs 2023 Price Movement Graph

Examining the data for 2023, illustrated by the green bars atop the long-term trend (depicted in blue), reveals a convergence with historical trends on home prices as the year progresses. Notably, the green bars closely align with the blue bars in the latter part of the year, indicating a more consistent level of appreciation.

Despite this nuanced analysis, media headlines predominantly spotlighted specific data points, overlooking broader contextual insights. It’s crucial to understand that moderate price adjustments during fall and winter months are typical, reflecting seasonal patterns. Considering the 49-year average, which hovers close to zero during these periods, slight declines are not uncommon and should be viewed as transient fluctuations within a broader upward trajectory in home prices throughout the year.

What You Should Keep in Mind

Rather than getting caught up in the minor fluctuations from month to month highlighted in headlines, it’s crucial to look at the broader, year-long trends. Focusing solely on these short-term changes can paint an incomplete picture of the real estate market.

Consider the shift we witnessed last year, where seasonality returned to the housing market—a positive development following the unsustainable surge in home prices during the pandemic’s peak years.

And if you’re concerned about a potential decline in home prices, rest assured that such worries may be unfounded. Projections for this year suggest that prices will continue to rise. This expectation stems from factors such as decreasing mortgage rates compared to last year, enticing more buyers back into the market. Simultaneously, the supply of homes for sale remains limited, further driving up prices as demand intensifies.

In San Diego, these trends hold particularly true, with the local market exhibiting similar dynamics. Understanding these broader trends can provide a clearer perspective for homeowners and prospective buyers alike, allowing for more informed decisions in navigating the real estate landscape.

Bottom Line on San Diego’s Market Trends

Essentially, it’s crucial not to get bogged down by the barrage of home price updates flooding the media. Looking at the broader picture, 2023 witnessed a notable uptick in home prices. However, amidst the flurry of headlines, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed or uncertain about what these fluctuations mean for our local market here in San Diego.

Should you find yourself grappling with questions sparked by these news snippets or overthinking the intricacies of home price dynamics in our city, don’t hesitate to reach out to the McT Real Estate Group. Let’s engage in a conversation tailored to your concerns and delve into the specifics of San Diego’s real estate landscape. Your peace of mind matters, and we’re here to provide the insights and support you deserve. Let’s connect and unravel the mysteries surrounding home prices in San Diego.

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Debunking Crash Myths in 2023: The Current Housing Inventory

I assume many of us still can recall the housing downturn of 2008, even if most of us weren’t homeowners back then. I mean, who wouldn’t, right? it was very controversial and a sight for sore eyes. If you’re feeling a bit uneasy and some tension about a repeat of those events, here’s a comforting thought you might want to hear from us: the current real estate landscape differs substantially from that of 2008. A key factor to note is the shortage and inventory of homes on the market right now. Essentially, we’re looking at a situation where demand exceeds supply, which is the opposite of what triggered the 2008 market crash. For a market crash scenario, there’d have to be a glut of homes available, and the current stats just aren’t pointing in that direction quite yet.

So, where do we get our housing stock from?

Current homeowners putting up their properties for sale
Brand-new constructions
Properties in distress, like foreclosures or ones being sold for less than owed

Let’s delve deeper into today’s property market to grasp why it’s distinct from the 2008 situation.

Current homeowners putting up their properties for sale

In our recent look at the housing market, even though there’s been a bit of a bump in the number of homes available compared to last year, we’re still not seeing heaps out there. When you put today’s numbers side by side with what we had in 2008, it’s a bit startling. The chart we’ve included below breaks it down, and you’ll notice that our present-day listings (highlighted in green) are only around a third of what we had back in the 2008 days (marked in red). It’s quite the change!

So, breaking it down simply: there’s a scarcity of homes on the market, which means property values aren’t going down any time soon. For us to relive the 2008 scenario, we’d see tons of homeowners selling with hardly anyone buying. And honestly, that’s just not the scene we’re witnessing at the moment.

Brand-New Constructions Inventory

Folks seem to be buzzing about the trends in newly constructed homes lately. This might lead you to ponder, “Are builders perhaps going a bit overboard?” Take a look at the chart below, which displays the count of new homes constructed over the past half-century.

For the past 14 years, marked in red, there’s been a noticeable shortfall in home construction. Essentially, homebuilders haven’t been producing enough residences for quite some time, leading to a marked dip in available housing.

Even though the last blue bar on the chart indicates a resurgence in building, nearing the long-term average, it won’t immediately lead to a surplus of homes. The existing deficit is just too vast to close swiftly. Furthermore, builders are now more cautious, aiming to avoid the mistakes of overproduction that occurred during the housing bubble.

Properties in distress, like foreclosures or ones being sold for less than owed

The final source of property listings can sometimes be homes in distress, such as those under short sales or foreclosures. Remember the housing turmoil a while back? That period saw a surge in foreclosed homes, mostly because quite a few folks got mortgages that, in hindsight, stretched their budgets too thin.

Fast forward to today, and the scene has transformed. With stricter lending criteria in place, we’re seeing more genuine homebuyers and a significant drop in foreclosures. Check out the graph below, which leans on Federal Reserve data, to grasp the striking difference since those turbulent times:

The Number of Foreclosure Filings is Near All Time Lows Graph — The Number of Foreclosure Filings is Near All-Time Lows Graph

The chart shows a clear trend: as lenders became stricter and buyers more informed, foreclosure rates began to drop. The years 2020 and 2021 saw a significant change. Thanks to the introduction of the moratorium on foreclosures and the forbearance program, we didn’t experience the foreclosure surge reminiscent of 2008.

The forbearance initiative was pivotal. It introduced homeowners to previously unavailable alternatives such as loan deferrals and alterations. Current statistics reveal that 4 out of 5 homeowners exiting forbearance have either settled their dues or established a repayment strategy to bypass foreclosure. These factors strongly suggest that we’re unlikely to witness a large influx of foreclosures in the market.

How Does This Impact You, Personally?

For our readers curious about the housing market, it’s worth noting that we currently don’t have enough homes on the market to see a significant drop in prices or a major downturn. Based on insights from Bankrate, this trend doesn’t seem to be changing in the near future, especially with buyers continuing to show keen interest.

“This ongoing lack of inventory explains why many buyers still have little choice but to bid up prices. And it also indicates that the supply-and-demand equationsimply won’t allow a price crash in the near future.”

In Summary

Given the current housing supply, we’re not in a position to see a rerun of the 2008 property downturn. The signs from the available inventory indicate that we’re not headed for a market collapse in the foreseeable future. So, if you’re ever planning on buying or selling a home, feel free to reach out to the McT Real Estate Group team for your real estate needs.

Housing Market Insights: Why Today’s Inventory is Cut in Half

Home Price Growth: Resurgence of Seasonal Trends

If you’re contemplating a real estate move right now, you’re likely asking yourself: “What’s the big deal with home prices these days?” Despite the social buzz in the media suggesting otherwise, the national home price growth isn’t actually dropping but you can say that it is more or less likely that the market is stabilizing right now. Let us break this down so you can grasp the broader picture. Shall we?

Like any market out there, real estate has its natural rhythms — seasonal patterns, if you will. Spring typically sees the market at its liveliest, with lots of activity from both buyers and sellers in the real estate market. While the summer months maintain a robust pace, things usually start to cool and dwindle down (pun intended) as we enter the fall season. Home prices tend to mirror this seasonal ebb and flow, appreciating most when demand is at its peak.

That’s how we arrive at a consistent, long-term trend in home price growth. To provide a visual representation, the graph below illustrates monthly price changes from 1973 to 2022, courtesy of Case-Shiller. The data isn’t adjusted for seasonality, giving you a full, transparent view of how prices have moved over and throughout the years.

49 Year Average Monthly Price Movement Graph — 49-Year Average Monthly Price Movement Graph

Home Price Movement in Terms of Data; The Seasonal Trend

As we’ve seen from the numbers and the data above, usually early in the year, there’s a modest uptick in home prices, but it doesn’t hold a candle to the growth we witness during the balmy spring and summer months. This trend largely happens because house-hunting tends to hibernate during the chillier and cooler months of January and February. But once the buds bloom and we hit peak homebuying season, the market buzzes to life, and home prices soar accordingly.

Come autumn and the subsequent winter chill, the pace of the buying and selling real estate market tends to cool off. Although the rate of price growth takes a breather at times, homes typically continue to appreciate their value over time. So you really don’t have to dwell too much on that when you hear the constant rumors that the housing market will soon come crashing down. I mean, we have always heard about it, but does it actually happen?

Following a few extraordinary years that felt like catching unicorns, today’s climbing mortgage rates are signaling a shift back toward traditional market cycles.
As explained by Selma Hepp, the head economist at CoreLogic:

“High mortgage rates have slowed additional price surges, with monthly increases returning to regular seasonal averages. In other words, home prices are still growing but are in line with historic seasonal expectations.”

Why It’s Crucial to Grasp This

In the months ahead, the media spotlight on home prices is bound to intensify greatly. You’re going to come across buzzwords like:

“Appreciation“: signifying rising or an increase in property prices.
“Deceleration of Appreciation“: means that prices are still rising, just not as quickly and as noticeable as before.
“Depreciation“: indicating a drop or a level of decrease in property prices.

It’s essential not to get entangled in the jargon or get misled by sensational headlines of seasonal trends. The robust growth in home prices we’ve witnessed recently was never going to last forever, as you could have expected. What we’re experiencing now is a moderation of that growth rate—a deceleration of appreciation, not a decrease in value. See what I did there?

Keep in mind that it’s perfectly standard for the rate of home price increases to taper off as the year progresses. This certainly doesn’t equate to falling home prices; it simply means they are ascending at a more sustainable rate.

Closing Thoughts on Home Price Growth

Feel free to drown and ignore the noise; the media often overly amplifies fears and misconceptions regarding housing prices. The reality? Home value growth is just settling back into its typical seasonal trends or patterns like what we have discussed in this article. So, if you’re scratching your head about what’s going on with home prices right here in our community, don’t hesitate to reach out to the McT Real Estate Group Team. Let’s get together to clarify any concerns you may have and maybe take your first steps in your home-buying or selling journey.