This is an archived market update. For the most current data, see our latest North Park San Diego market update.
What happens to the San Diego housing market as we move into the holiday season?
The short answer: supply and demand pull back together, creating a quieter—but surprisingly strategic—window for both buyers and sellers.
The Holiday Market Arrives Every Year
As we approach Thanksgiving, the San Diego housing market reliably shifts into its calmest stretch. Every year, homeowners pause listing plans, buyers take a breather, and the pace of new inventory slows to its lowest levels heading into New Year’s Day.
This year, the same pattern is unfolding.
According to recent countywide data, the inventory already dropped by 15% from mid-July’s peak, and history tells us that number will fall further. Last year, San Diego’s active listings dropped 28% from November to early January. In 2023, the drop was 22%, and in 2022, it was 32%. This seasonal decline isn’t unique—it’s a normal part of the market cycle that repeats year after year.
Fewer Homes Coming to Market
Homeowners instinctively know that the holidays are not the most convenient time to sell. December consistently sees the fewest new listings of any month, followed closely by November. Many sellers simply pull their homes off the market until January.
This year, more sellers are stepping aside than usual. Over 12,700 have already paused or withdrawn their listings—up 77% from last year. Combined with the seasonal slowdown, this accelerates the decline in available homes.
At the same time, homeowners continue to stay put due to their low locked-in mortgage rates, contributing to fewer overall new listings compared to pre-pandemic norms.
Buyer Activity Slows—But Doesn’t Stop
While fewer homes come to market, buyer demand also dips as the holidays take center stage. Some buyers wait for fresh inventory; others pause their search until after New Year’s.
Last year, pending sales fell 31% from November to early January. This year, demand started slightly higher than last year but is expected to experience a similar seasonal drop—though likely not as steep—thanks to lower mortgage rates compared to last year’s levels.
That said, even with demand softening, motivated buyers remain active. Those still searching in December and early January typically have clear goals and timelines, making them serious contenders for any home that stands out.
Why the Market Still Feels Stable
Here’s the interesting part: even though supply and demand both fall sharply during the holidays, the pace of the market stays relatively steady. That’s because both sides of the equation decline together.
The Expected Market Time—how long it would take to sell all active listings at the current pace—barely shifts during December. This trend has held steady since 2020, and this year is no different.
In fact, the latest numbers show the Expected Market Time sitting around 94 days, just one day faster than two weeks ago. Detached homes remain slightly more competitive than attached homes, and luxury inventory is moving faster than it has since spring.
So while the market feels quieter, it isn’t stalling.
What This Means If You’re Thinking About Buying
Fewer active buyers means:
- Less competition
- Fewer bidding wars
- More negotiating room
- A calmer decision-making environment
If you’re hoping to buy in the near future, the holiday season can give you an edge that disappears once January’s fresh inventory sparks new demand.
What This Means If You’re Planning to Sell
Even with fewer buyers, the ones still shopping are serious. And with so many homes temporarily off the market, yours has a better chance of standing out.
The noise level drops during this season. With lower competition, buyers pay closer attention to well-priced, well-prepared homes.
If you’re considering listing in the next 30 to 90 days, now is the perfect time to plan your strategy, prep your home, and enter the market when the timing aligns best with your goals.
Final Takeaway
San Diego’s shift into the Holiday Market doesn’t signal a slowdown in opportunity—just a change in pace. Whether you’re buying or selling, this season presents a strategic opportunity to move forward with less competition and greater clarity.
If you’re thinking of selling soon, be sure to download your free Seller’s Guide first, then call us so we can discuss how best to approach the new year.