If you’ve been hearing talk about a housing crash in San Diego—you’re not alone. Social media is flooded with negativity, and it’s easy to get caught up in it. But the real numbers tell a different story. So let’s cut through the noise and look at what’s actually happening in the San Diego real estate market right now.
Inventory Is Rising, But We’re Still in a Low Supply Market
First, inventory. There’s a big myth out there that the market is flooded with homes and prices are about to fall off a cliff. That’s just not true. Yes, inventory has gone up—San Diego County now has 5,868 homes on the market. That’s 60% higher than last year. But here’s the thing: we’re still below pre-COVID inventory levels. In fact, 2019 had more homes for sale than we do today.
So while it feels like there’s more for buyers to choose from, we’re not even close to the oversupply we saw during the Great Recession. Back then, inventory levels were nearly double what we have now. And that’s one reason why home values in San Diego have stayed so resilient.
Slower Price Growth Doesn’t Mean a San Diego Housing Market Crash
Let’s talk about pricing. We saw an 11% increase in home values last year. This March, the increase was down to 2%. So yes, appreciation is slowing—but that doesn’t mean we’re headed for a crash. The fundamentals are strong. Most homeowners have significant equity. Many own their homes outright. Loans made over the past decade have gone to well-qualified buyers with solid employment and low debt. That’s a big difference from the last crash.
If you’re a homeowner thinking of selling, here’s the reality: homes are still moving. Buyers are out there. Demand rose 1% in the past couple of weeks. Not a lot, but it’s steady. The current market time in San Diego is 93 days. That’s longer than last year, but very normal for this season. Detached homes are selling faster than condos or townhomes, which typically take over 100 days to sell on average.
You may also hear that no one is moving because of low mortgage rates. That was true in 2023. But this year? More sellers are stepping up. In fact, through April, there were 22% more “For Sale” signs across the county compared to the same time last year. That’s 4,556 more homes listed than in 2023. People are realizing that life moves forward, regardless of the pace.
Thinking of Selling? Here’s What You Need to Know with the San Diego Housing Market
And here’s the part that really matters if you’re thinking of selling: timing the market almost never works. Prices might dip slightly or remain level. But if mortgage rates drop—and they could—you’ll suddenly be competing with more sellers as buyer demand jumps. We’ve seen it happen. Even a small rate drop brings buyers off the sidelines. So if you’re ready to sell and move on, don’t wait for some perfect moment that may never come.
Bottom line: this market rewards sellers who are realistic and ready. We’re seeing smart, motivated sellers making good moves, especially in neighborhoods like North Park, South Park, and the metro areas of San Diego. And buyers are responding to well-priced, move-in-ready homes.
If you’re wondering whether now is the right time for you, give me a call. I’m Z with the McT Real Estate Group in San Diego. I live and work in the neighborhoods I serve, and my team and I are here to provide you with straightforward answers based on real data.
We’ll help you understand what your home is worth, what buyers are looking for right now, and how to make the most of today’s market. No pressure. Just facts. Let’s talk. Give us a call today.