If you’ve been following the housing market in recent years, you’ve likely noticed that sellers have held a strong advantage. However, with the increasing inventory, we may start to see a shift in the market dynamics. As the number of available homes in San Diego rises, buyers could gain more leverage, potentially leading to a more balanced real estate market. Understanding these changes is crucial for anyone looking to buy or sell in the San Diego area. Here’s what you need to know to stay ahead in this evolving market.
What Is a Balanced Real Estate Market?
A balanced market is typically defined as a real estate environment where the supply of homes for sale matches the demand, usually with about a five-to-seven-month inventory. In such a market, neither buyers nor sellers hold a distinct advantage. Home prices tend to stabilize, and the variety of available properties gives buyers more options. For many years, San Diego, like much of the nation, has experienced a strong seller’s market, where sellers have had the upper hand. A shift towards a balanced market would be a significant change, offering a more level playing field for both parties. But the real question remains—are we truly heading in that direction?
As the year began, the national housing market was operating with a three-month supply of homes. However, recent trends show an increase to a four-month supply. While this may seem like a small shift, it’s a step toward a more balanced market. It’s crucial to understand that this increase in inventory doesn’t signal an impending market crash. Despite the recent growth in supply, we are far from having an oversupply that could lead to such a scenario.
In San Diego, the local market has mirrored these national trends. Inventory levels have risen slightly, yet the market remains competitive. The following graph, based on data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), illustrates how inventory has fluctuated over the years, giving insight into the current state of the market.
At this point, San Diego remains in seller’s market territory, though it’s not as intense as in previous years. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, wisely notes:
“The faster housing supply increases, the more affordability improves and the strength of a seller’s market wanes.”
This shift, while gradual, signals a possible transition towards a more balanced market, which could be a welcome change for those looking to buy or sell in San Diego.