Spoiler alert: Housing affordability isn’t as black-and-white as the headlines make it seem.
Talk to different people, and you’ll hear different takes. For some, it’s all about rising prices. For others, it’s the lack of available homes. But at the core, it really comes down to access—access to opportunity, to financing, and to homes that actually fit real people’s budgets.
So what does “affordability” even mean in a city like San Diego? And more importantly, where can you still find a home that checks the boxes and fits the budget?
Let’s take a closer look.
Inventory Crisis or Access Crisis?
If you’ve been following the housing conversation lately, you’ve probably heard a lot about the so-called “housing shortage.” But not everyone sees it the same way. Two well-known voices in real estate data—Logan Mohtashami and Ivy Zelman—have very different takes on what the real problem is.
Ivy Zelman’s Perspective: It’s About Affordability, Not Just Inventory
If her name sounds familiar, it’s because Ivy Zelman was one of the first to sound the alarm before the 2008 housing crash—years before it actually happened. And now, she’s raising concerns again. But this time, it’s not about how many homes are available—it’s about whether people can actually afford them.
She puts it plainly: it doesn’t matter how many listings are on the market if most buyers can’t handle the monthly payment.
In a recent webinar, she said:
“You could talk as much as you want about how many units might be short, but if you can’t offer, whether it be a rental unit at less than a thousand a month or the mortgage payment at a thousand dollars a month, who really cares?”
And she’s got a point. Think about it—young adults graduating college today are often priced out of renting their own place, let alone buying a home. So yes, there may technically be homes on the market. But there’s a growing disconnect between what’s listed and what buyers can realistically afford.
Logan Mohtashami’s Take: Has Housing Ever Been Truly Affordable?
Logan Mohtashami, a well-respected housing market analyst, looks at affordability through a broader, long-term lens. His take? Affordability has always been a challenge.
He poses a simple but powerful question:
“When was housing ever affordable?”
Mohtashami points out that home prices have historically climbed during almost every major inflationary period—whether it was the 1940s, the 1970s, or even during the COVID-19 pandemic. So, the idea that prices will suddenly drop and make homeownership easy again? He sees that as more of a hope than a reality.
And yet, people still buy homes. Millions do every year.
According to Mohtashami, buyers find ways to make it work—by combining incomes, staying flexible on location, or rethinking what features or size they really need in a home.
Over All Housing Affordability Across the US
While national experts debate why housing feels out of reach, Realtor.com took a closer look at the data—grading each state on how well it’s handling affordability and new home construction.
Their State Report Cards focused on four key areas:
- REALTORS® Affordability Score: 25%
- Share of income the median earner spends on a median-priced home: 25%
- Permit-to-population ratio (how many homes are being built): 40%
- New-construction premium (how much extra buyers are paying for new homes): 10%
Here’s what they found: Southern and Midwestern states are generally doing better when it comes to affordability. Western and Northeastern states? Not so much. High prices and stricter building rules are making it harder for people to buy.
And get this—only 18 states can say that a median-priced home is actually affordable for someone earning the median income (based on the standard that housing shouldn’t eat up more than 30% of your paycheck).
What Housing Affordability Looks Like in San Diego
It’s no surprise: San Diego remains one of the least affordable housing markets in the country.
According to Realtor.com’s Q1 2019 Affordability Distribution Score Report, the San Diego–Carlsbad metro ranked near the bottom with a score of 0.39—just behind Los Angeles and slightly ahead of Oxnard–Thousand Oaks–Ventura. That’s not a flattering list to be on.
Fast forward to early 2025, and the numbers haven’t gotten much easier. The median listing price is hovering around $949,000, with a price per square foot of $725. Homes are typically selling for about 99.97% of the asking price, and they’re moving fast—usually in about 30 days. It’s still very much a seller’s market.
Affordability? That’s where things really get tight.
According to the California Association of Realtors, only 12% of households in San Diego County could afford the median-priced home in Q3 of 2024, which was $1.01 million at the time. While that’s a tiny improvement over the previous quarters (11%), it still means most residents are priced out. To qualify for a home like that, you’d need to earn at least $253,600 a year—assuming a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.63%.
There’s a bit of good news on the rental side: San Diego’s rent-to-income ratio dropped from 35% to 31.1% as of April 2025. It’s not a huge shift, but any easing is welcome in such a tight market.
At the end of the day, San Diego continues to offer an incredible lifestyle—great weather, beautiful coastline, and world-class amenities. But all of that comes with a price tag, and affordability remains one of the biggest hurdles for buyers trying to make it work here.
The Good News: You Do Have Options
Sure, prices are high, and mortgage rates matter—but that doesn’t mean homeownership is out of reach.
Plenty of buyers in San Diego are still making it happen. Here’s how:
- They’re getting clear on their numbers early—before they fall for homes outside their budget.
- They’re exploring different financing routes, like adjustable-rate mortgages, first-time buyer programs, and even rate buydowns.
- And they’re staying open-minded—maybe adjusting their must-haves or considering new areas where their money goes further.
If you’re wondering what might be possible for you, or just want the latest scoop on where the real opportunities are, reach out to the McT Real Estate Group. We’re here to help you navigate this market with confidence.