Surprisingly, historical data reveals that Presidential elections typically cause only a brief and minimal effect on the housing market. While the topic is worth considering, it doesn’t need to derail your real estate plans. By examining how home sales, prices, and mortgage rates have behaved during previous election cycles, especially in a market as dynamic as San Diego’s, you can make an informed decision with confidence.
So, as you weigh the pros and cons of your homeownership decision, it’s reassuring to know that the upcoming election is unlikely to cause major disruptions in the housing market. Instead, you can focus on the broader trends and facts that matter most to your goals.
San Diego Home Sales and Presidential Elections: What to Expect
As the Presidential election approaches, typically from October to November, home sales often see a slight slowdown. This pattern isn’t unique to any particular area, and San Diego is no exception. Many potential homebuyers choose to wait until the election is over before making such a significant decision. However, it’s essential to understand that this slowdown is both minor and temporary.
Historically, home sales have a strong rebound after the election. According to data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), home sales increased in 9 of the last 11 elections during the year that followed. This trend has been consistent since the early 1990s, showcasing the resilience of the housing market, including in bustling areas like San Diego.
So, while the pre-election months may seem slow, it’s a short-lived phase. San Diego’s housing market, like the national market, has shown time and time again that it quickly bounces back, continuing its upward trend in the post-election year.
Home Prices in Election Years: What to Expect in San Diego
You might be curious if home prices dip during election years. Historically, they don’t. As Ryan Lundquist, a residential appraiser and housing analyst, points out:
“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”
In fact, home prices tend to follow their existing trend, regardless of an election. Over time, they generally rise, and San Diego is no exception. Barring any significant economic shifts, you can expect the current pricing trend in your local market to continue.
According to recent data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), home prices have increased after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections. The only exception was during the 2008-2009 housing market crash, a highly unusual period. However, today’s market is more resilient, and while home prices are moderating across the country, they are not experiencing a broad decline.
In San Diego, where the housing market has remained strong, prices have consistently trended upward. Although national trends can influence local markets, San Diego’s unique appeal and strong demand help stabilize home values, even during uncertain times like election years.
Mortgage Rates in San Diego
One major factor on everyone’s mind is mortgage rates. If you’re financing a home, rates can significantly affect your monthly payment. Historically, during Presidential election years, mortgage rates have often decreased. In fact, data from Freddie Mac reveals that in 8 of the last 11 election years, mortgage rates dropped between July and November.
In 2024, we’re already seeing a similar trend. Most experts anticipate a slight easing of rates throughout the remainder of the year, and current indicators point in that direction. For homebuyers in San Diego, this could be a favorable development, boosting your purchasing power just as the market shows signs of cooling. With San Diego’s competitive real estate landscape, a slight drop in rates could make all the difference in finding your perfect home in the city. If you’re considering a purchase in the coming months, staying informed about these trends can help you make a more confident decision.
What This Means for You in San Diego
So, what’s the key takeaway here? While Presidential elections can influence the housing market, their effects are generally limited. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, points out on a recent Bankrate article:
“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”
In other words, for most buyers and sellers in San Diego, elections don’t significantly alter their plans. The local market remains driven by factors like inventory, interest rates, and neighborhood trends rather than election outcomes. Whether you’re planning to buy or sell, it’s important to stay informed but not overly concerned about political events. The housing market in San Diego has consistently shown resilience, even in times of political uncertainty.
Bottom Line on How Presidential Elections Affect San Diego’s Housing Market
Election years can bring a wave of uncertainty, but history consistently demonstrates that the housing market remains robust, even during these times of change. This means there’s no need to put your homebuying or selling plans on hold simply because an election is around the corner. In San Diego, where the real estate market often thrives regardless of national trends, this resilience is particularly evident. So, whether you’re considering buying or selling, now is still a great time to make your move. If you need guidance through the unique dynamics of this election cycle, the McT Real Estate Group is here to help. Let’s connect and discuss your best options for navigating the San Diego market with confidence.