In the past several years, buyers have faced challenges trying to buy a home in San Diego. Spring has traditionally been considered the best season for homebuying during pre-covid years. This is when most homeowners put their homes up for sale, leading to a wider selection for buyers. For buyers in the fall, however, marketing conditions are aligning in favor of homebuyers in many markets, creating a unique window that hasn’t happened in recent years.
If you’re considering buying in San Diego’s metro neighborhoods, especially North Park, this fall market is creating opportunities we haven’t seen in years. For a full local guide on navigating inventory, pricing, and competition, start here: Buying a Home in San Diego.
This year, buyers looking for that optimum mix of ample options and the potential to save on list price will find some of the best market dynamics in years during the first week of October,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist, Realtor.com®. So, what makes this season stand out? Let’s break down the data below.
#1 Lower Mortgage Rates for Buyers In the Fall
Mortgage rates have been steadily rising for months. They dropped to their lowest point since February of 2023, at 6.11% as of September 11th. This decline offers buyers a chance to lock in more favorable rates and save substantially on their monthly payments.
If you’re running payment numbers right now, this is also a good time to review what homes are actually selling for locally. You can start with a neighborhood-level snapshot here: North Park homes for sale and recent prices.
For instance, the monthly payment on a typical home purchase has decreased by over $100 since peaking in May, according to Zillow.
#2 Peak Inventory Levels
If you’ve been waiting for more choices to come your way, your patience has finally been rewarded. In August, the inventory of homes for sale rose by 22. 1 % compared to the year at this time. Additionally, Realtor.com predicts that the initial week of October is expected to showcase a 37 % increase in listings since the beginning of this year, giving buyers an array of options to choose from.
“Unlike the past few years, we are seeing ample for-sale inventory which could soak up any late-season demand in many markets, making the fall a great time to buy even if falling mortgage rates amp up more demand than is typical”
More inventory means buyers in the fall have more choices, and along with that, they have more opportunities to find the perfect home. It also means less pressure to make a snap decision, allowing you the time to thoroughly consider your options without worrying about losing out to another buyer.
Having a variety of houses to choose from allows you to explore options and improves your chances of discovering the home for you while also taking away the pressure to make a quick decision, giving you the flexibility to thoroughly assess your options without worrying about missing out on a property to another buyer. In August of 2024, San Diego’s housing market inventory trends were somewhat in line with national trends but showed unique characteristics specific to the region. Nationally, inventory increased, and the same was observed in San Diego. San Diego County’s active listings saw a slight decrease of 1.2% year-over-year, reflecting a market still grappling with limited supply.
San Diego Market Slows: Inventory Up and Demand Down, Creating Opportunities for Buyers
Here in San Diego, homes spent an average of seven days longer on the market compared to the previous year, indicating a slower market. However, the median listing prices in the West remained flat year-over-year, suggesting that sellers are still holding on to higher price points despite the slower sales pace. As of today, Sept.13, the inventory in San Diego County is up 2% week-over-week, and demand is down 1%. Expected Market Time increased from 82 to 84 days.
For San Diego buyers in the fall, this means a slightly more favorable environment with more homes available and potentially less competition. However, since prices have not dropped significantly, it remains a market where careful negotiation and strategy are crucial to securing a good deal. SDC inventory up 2% week-over-week, demand down 1%. Expected Market Time increased from 82 to 84 days.
In walkable neighborhoods like North Park, South Park, and University Heights, this shift often shows up first in longer days on market and more room for negotiation on homes that need updating.
#3 Less Competition Means More Negotiating Power
Spring and summer are traditionally hot buying seasons, with a typical cooling in fall and winter. Buyer demand will likely drop by nearly 30% from the spring peak. This reduction in competition could give you a leg up in negotiations, whether that means offering below the asking price or asking the seller to cover some of your closing costs.
This is especially helpful for first-time buyers and move-up buyers who were priced out earlier this year. If you’re unsure how to structure an offer in today’s market, this step-by-step guide walks through the process: Buying a home in San Diego: is now the right time?.
#4 Price Reductions are More Common for Buyers In the Fall
In a market with a surplus of goods and less competition, sellers are typically more eager to negotiate and close deals. In August, 25.9 % of listings saw price reductions across the country versus 23.4 % twelve months ago. If you’ve been feeling discouraged by prices, you might come across opportunities to negotiate for a better deal or grab a bargain on a property that’s been sitting on the market for quite some time unsold.
According to Redfin, data analysis shows a decrease in the percentage of homes sold above their listed price from 33% year to 27% in the four weeks ending September 8th. This indicates that sellers are now more open to bargaining, which could give you the chance to purchase a home at a lower price than anticipated.
Seasonal Trends for Homebuyers
Fall is typically quieter for real estate transactions, but it actually offers buyers an opportunity as eager sellers aim to finalize deals before the holiday season. They tend to be more open to negotiating terms and prices quickly. Realtor.com even pinpointed the week of September 29th to October 5th as the prime time to make a home purchase this year (among other compelling factors!)
Looking specifically in North Park? Here’s our local community guide with schools, walkability, housing styles, and current listings: North Park San Diego real estate.
If you’re thinking about buying a home, waiting until spring could mean higher rates, fewer options, and stiffer competition. This fall is offering a rare combination of lower mortgage rates, more inventory, reduced competition, and increased negotiating power. If you want to learn more about your options, feel free to call us any time.